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by Kevin Vail, General Manager, Shin Seiki Evas
July 24th, 2011
Arbitration is an interesting thing. It can force a player to earn his pay with performance. It can be a way for a team to hold on to a star player, but still pay him his worth. Or it can be burden with the power to break a franchise’s budget. That is what we saw in the LRS 2010 offseason. Several teams were forced to dump productive players or even stars, just because of arbitration. I doubt the much-improved group of GMs that the LRS now sports will be caught so unaware this offseason. With that in mind, I think it is worth taking a look at the decisions that will need to be made. Here is my guess on whether each franchise will keep or non-tender each of their arbitration eligible players slated to earn $1M or more in 2012.
 Edo Battousai:
- LF Kansuke Murata, $1.2M: Keep. Murata has been a fantastic value, providing power, speed and defense. Easy call here.
Fushigi Yugi Celestial Warriors:
- LF Juichi Kimura, $1.4M: Non-Tender. Kimura has been decent in 2011, but his .243 BABIP has masked his mediocrity well. Performance like his can be had for much less.
Hyakujuu Shinkansen:
- 1B Yasushi Amano, $1.2M: Non-Tender. Mediocre temporary solution type of player. I see no reason to pay him.
- RF Keisuke Hashimoto, $1.3M: Non-Tender. Same as Amano, just not worth paying much. Especially for a rich team like HYA.
Kawaguchi Transmitters:
- SP Jotaro Tanaka, $3.8M: Non-Tender. Tanaka is a decent pitcher, but KAW is in a tough spot. They are desperate for salary relief, not SP. I think they could put that $3.8M to much better use in other areas.
- CL Pepe Rico, $5.8M: Keep. Tough call here, but he is a dominant reliever and that has a lot of value. The smart move would be to keep him and try to post him to the PEBA, where he would be a bargain.
- SP Haruki Sekiguchi, $1.6M: Keep. A solid starter at a reasonable price.
Kure Arsenal:
Kuwana Steel Dragons:
- LF Sozui Kawashima, $7.2M: Keep. Star player at a reasonable price. KUW has more than enough salary room to keep him. Why would they let him go?
Lupin Cliff Hangers:
- 2B José Aguilar, $2.2M: Keep. Before 2011 he was, by all accounts, a filler player with no future. I have no idea where this season came from. Lupin has money to spare so I can’t see them letting him walk at this point.
Naha Shisa:
- 3B José Escalante. $8.4M: Keep. Escalante is a star, something Naha otherwise lacks. If Fees kept him after 2010, there is no way he’d non tender him after 2011, especially considering the amount of salary room he’ll have to work with.
- CL Toshikuni Watanabe, $1.4M: Non-Tender. Not a big talent, not a real closer. He should go.
Neo-Tokyo Akira:
- MR Masato Noguchi, $1.1M: Keep. Another potentially overpaid, unspectacular MR, but he has a more solid track record than the others on this list.
- 1B Jonathan Cook, $4.7M: Non-Tender. NT got him on a bargain basement contract last time. He has provided some power, but not $4.2M worth.
Niihama-shi Ghosts:
- CL Roberto Ortega, $8.0M: Keep. Ortega is dominant and very popular. NII is a big market team and can afford him. The smart move might be to sign him to a long-term extension now to get him at a lower rate, or maybe flip him to the PEBA via posting.
- MR Mito Nii, $5.4M: Keep. Another dominant and popular reliever. He would be extremely expensive for a MR at $5.4M, but he could inherit the CL job from Ortega if Ortega gets posted.
- C Octávio Díaz. $1.9M: Non-Tender. Older, foreign and not that good. He should go.
Seoul Crushers: Have no players slated to make over $1M via arbitration.
Shin Seiki Evas:
- RF Eitoku Yamada, $10.6M: Keep. He has been unbelievable for me this year. There is no way I could non-tender him at this point. I wish his price wouldn’t keep climbing though…
Totals:
Relevant Players: 20
Players to be Kept: 10
Kept Player Salaries: $44.3M
Players to be Non-Tendered: 10
Non-Tendered Player Salaries: $24.7M
$24.7M is a nice chunk of change. It should add fuel to the fire of what should be a very active free agent market in the LRS next offseason.
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